Trump Hyperdrive: Sifting Through the Election Results

I think it is quite clear that Trump comes to office with a powerful mandate for change even though he narrowly lost the popular vote to Hillary. Looking at the big picture, I see powerful evidence of a repudiation of Obama and his policies in the fact that Republicans now control the White House, Senate, House and – in the long-run – the Supreme Court.

Republicans also dominate with 35 governors and a majority of state legislatures. See, http://www.governing.com/topics/elections/gov-republicans-add-dominance-state-legislatures.html The bottom line is that The Tea Party movement took away Obama's control of Congress in 2010. Now, Trump has taken away his fragile legacy.

I am also confident in predicting great changes will soon take place. Elections definitely have consequences. Withing a few months, Trump will reverse Obama’s numerous executive orders, change his foreign policy, and dramatically alter immigration patterns into the U.S. This is good news because, as I have argued for a long time, Obama came into office with a radical socialist agenda. See, http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/08/when_exactly_did_barack_obama_renounce_communism.html#.UBwxfAzIFng.google_plusone_share

Moreover, I think it is say to say this new nationalist, populous realignment will be locked in for a long-time once people experience the good things and great improvements that will take place under a skillful Trump administration.

While I am pleased that I called Trump's win correctly, I am disappointed that I completely missed the magnitude of his victory. I relied too heavily on polls. To set things straight, here is a great article that lays out how the Trump data team was looking at the numbers right before the election.

See, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/trump-s-data-team-saw-a-different-america-and-they-were-right

Nevertheless, I think the results illustrate something I have thought for a long-time. It never made sense to me that liberals could get away with blaming rural whites for the problems experienced by inner city minorities.

Finally, I remained startled at how bad the polling was for this election. I suspected that all these media outlets were producing inaccurate polls on purpose in order to actively discourage Trump’s nationalist, populist voter turnout. In retrospect, Nate Silver’s wildly wrong prediction of a Hillary victory will do a lot to sully his reputation. Silver, after all, was consistently wrong about Trump’s chances at every step of the process. Now, Silver appears to be blaming the pollsters without asking whether or not their liberal bias impacted their findings.

See, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-missed-trump-we-asked-pollsters-why/

Silver’s current argument seems to be that there were a lot of shy Trump voters who failed to signal their support for Trump. This was a possibility, however, that the so-called experts dismissed prior to the election. See, http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/donald-trump-bradley-effect

I called the election correctly, in part, because I knew enough Republicans who were shy about their support for Trump and I was convinced that the third party vote would eventually decline and that most of those voters would go to Trump rather than Hillary. I think I was also right to assume a Hillary bias among pollsters and to discount their predictions accordingly. I have had enough exposure to academia, the media and journalists to be confident that anti-Trump bias impacts their behavior.

John C. Drew, Ph.D. is an award-winning political scientist.

How Low Can He Go? Rasmussen Reports Shows Steep Drop in Obama Job Approval Ratings

I trust Rasmussen Reports because they look at likely voters, the registered voters most likely to actually make a difference by turning out for elections. Moreover, Rasmussen has demonstrated an uncanny degree of accuracy in predicting the exact results of Presidential elections. Accordingly, I think Barack Obama and his administration have just gotten the clearest possible warning from the American people that the administration is going in the wrong direction.



For example, in today's Rasmussen survey, Obama reached the lowest point of his presidency - an overwhelmingly negative -14 on Rasmussen's "approval index." Rasmussen constructs this approval index by subtracting the 27 percent who now "strongly approve" of Obama's performance from the 41 percent who "strongly disapprove."

I think these negative approval numbers are a little unfair to President Obama since they include people who disagree with Obama on policy issues and others who agree with the President and are upset that he is not winning the battle on health care or other prized liberal issues. In a larger sense, however, low approval numbers undermine a President's credibility and political influence. These numbers indicate that it will be easier for Blue Dog Democrats and Republicans to claim that the President is making mistakes and that they should not follow his direction - particularly when he leads us towards his beloved Marxist socialist utopia.


John C. Drew, Ph.D. is an award-winning political scientist.

Turning Around a Struggling Administration: Free Advice for POTUS from A25OTUS

I just read in the NYT that the Obama administration is holding a special review and strategy session this weekend. According to the NYT, a White House aide said 22 officials with Cabinet rank will meet with administration advisers at Blair House this weekend. They will use this time to take stock of what the administration has accomplished and plan for the future.

I've been watching Obama's steeply dropping Presidential approval ratings...so I think I understand why this July 31 - August 1 working weekend is so important. As a management consultant, I know that there is only one real reason for organizational failure - the behavior of the leader at the very top of the organization.

I've had the unique experience of being an award-winning political scientist, a successful management consultant, and an early advisor to the young BHO. In that spirit, I would make the following recommendations to him for turning around his struggling presidency:

1. Quit your substance abuse. You can't perform as President and also damage your brain with alcohol, tobacco or other drugs ATOD.

2. Pick the brains of those who predicted the failure of the stimulus package...these are the economists and social scientists who really understand how a modern economy functions, prospers and produces jobs. (Give Steve Forbes a call.)

3. Remember that the most successful Presidents of the past have done what has helped them stay high in the polls. This is one of the unique blessings of the American political system. If the President is doing well in the polls, then he is usually making wise decisions that benefit the nation.

I don't expect BHO to ever read this post. Nevertheless, this would be my sincere advice based on what I know about him and the larger patterns of U.S. politics.

Augustine 25 is the pseudonym of an award-winning political scientist.

The Gates of Unpopularity: Obama Dropping in Job Approval Numbers

There is plenty of good news in the paper today. Rasmussen Reports, for example, now shows a majority of likely voters disapprove of President Obama's performance. They indicated that 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve, while fifty percent (50%) disapprove.

Rasmussen Reports have a tendency to make Obama look relatively less popular because they are based on a sample of likely voters.

Other firms that are more popular with the mainstream media base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. As Rasmussen indicates: "President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters." The reason? The younger voters who are among the most ardent supporters of Obama are actually less likely to show up and vote in mid-term and later presidential elections.

Augustine 25 is the pseudonym of an award-winning political scientist.

Can You Hear Me Now? Obama Poll Numbers Drop As Unemployment Rises

Pew Research Relief: Obama Popularity Dropping As Expected

Declining Presidential approval ratings are as predictable as the falling tides. Historically speaking, no President is immune from buyer's remorse.

A recent poll by the Pew Research Center - released March 16, 2009 - put Obama's approval at 59% compared to 64% last month. The Pew poll found that a growing number of Americans see him as listening more to the liberals than to the moderates in the Democratic Party. Elsewhere, I saw Gallup has determined that the major factor in these lower poll numbers has been a decline in support among Republicans, from 41% to 26%.

To a certain extent, this is simply a normal occurance. It is impossible for newly elected Presidents to maintain their initial popularity. As they make decisions they will disappoint people. As they endure in office, the allure of their earlier promises turns into the grim realization that they have not been able to produce the changes they promised. This is why the first 100 days are so critical to understanding the success or failure of a President. After the first 100 days, it will become increasingly difficult for President Obama to get much accomplished from his perspective.

Luckily for Republicans, Obama's administration appears to be headed into the ditch already, in part, because he will insist on giving more bailouts to AIG. This looks like a bad idea to most of us, since AIG gave out $165 million in bonuses even though the company received more than $170 billion in federal rescue money.

Given Obama's political inexperience and lack of management skills, his declining popularity should do more damage to his overall power and influence than would normally be expected at this point in a President's term of office.

Barack Obama Drops in the Popularity Polls

The news this morning is that President Barack Obama's popularity with the American people is in decline. In large measure, this is simply a normal occurance. It is impossible for newly elected Presidents to maintain their initial popularity. As they make decisions they will disappoint people. As they endure in office, the allure of their earlier promises turns into the grim realization that they have not been able to produce the changes they promised. This is why the first 100 days are so critical to understanding the office. After about 100 days, it will become increasingly difficult for President Obama to get much accomplished from his perspective.

Still, the speed with which a President loses popularity is an important thing to watch, in my view. Here, Obama's inexperience and prior toleration of corruption harmed his chances of making the most of his Presidency. He blundered through the transition period, in part, because of his links to Gov. Blagojevich. As was the case with his earlier relationship with Tony Rezko, Obama found it hard to minimize a relationship that was subject to FBI wiretaps. Next, his defiant support of Sen. Tom Daschle lost him valuable prestige and showed off a gangster side that probably surprised a lot of well-meaning Americans who were willing to give him an opportunity to show what he could do.