Seeing Rick Perry Live in Orange County, CA

I got a chance to see Gov. Rick Perry of Texas in action this morning. The Orange County Republican Central Committee (OCGOP) held a special rally for him at one of my favorite spots, Rogers Gardens in Newport Beach. As I understand the conventional wisdom, Gov. Perry is not supposed to be really strong as a debater -- something I noticed watching on television last night -- and yet he is supposed to be gifted at making a difference through these personal appearances.

As a political scientist, I am asking myself the question what is it that Gov. Perry does in person that scores points for him.

First, I think one of the most important things that comes across about his is that he is very conscientious. For example, he goes out of his way to sign campaign posters.

One of my political friends showed me a cowboy hat signed by both Gov. Perry and his wife on opposite ends of the brim near the crown of the hat. The signatures were perfect - carefully balanced and carefully written out. My friend believes that 40 years from now this hat will be a sought after item on eBay. I think he is right. It looks like Perry chalked up another supporter in the local Orange County Republican Party, in part, through his kindness and timely attention to detail.

At the event, Perry also went out of his way to recognize, Tom Fuentes, the prior O.C. Republican Central Committee chairman, who is terminally ill from cancer.  Perry did not simply recognize Fuentes once, he weaved comments on Fuentes, into the overall speech he gave that morning to the partisan crowd.

While I managed to shake Gov. Perry hand, I did not do a good job of informing him about Barack Obama's long-standing ties to Marxist socialist thought.  I'm expecting he and his staff have read my posts here and elsewhere and that eventually the truth about Obama's commitment to Marxism and socialism will inform the 2012 campaign in a way that it did not in the 2008 campaign.  I took home a Gov. Perry sign.  I will put up in the window of my office, in large measure, to disturb my Democratic Party neighbors - the one who probably think it is too soon to be focused on national politics.

John C. Drew, Ph.D. is an award-winning political scientist.

Romney Rises to Occasion in First Debate with Perry

The most important thing I noticed is that Romney is looking better than ever based on what I saw at the latest MSNBC Republican Primary debate with Brian Williams and some dorky guy from Politico - John F. Harris, Editor-in-Chief. (Really, it is not fair to put Harris on the same stages as Brian Williams. It's like watching a high school ballerina perform next to someone from American Ballet Theatre.)

The debate started off with a quick round of back and forth between Gov. Romney and Gov. Perry and Romney clearly demonstrated that years of experience in national debates pays off. Romney had clearly anticipated Perry's answers and responses and created a level-headed, common-sense image that made Perry look awkward and overpowered. Romney also looked more rested. Perry looked as if he had been up all night fighting those fires in TX himself.

As a reporter, I would say that the key exchange took place after Gov. Perry attacked Gov. Romney's record of job creation in Massachusetts. In a Reaganesque moment, Romney to interjected "listen, wait a second" as the moderators tried to move on, Here, Romney played his cards well by getting a break for himself early in the debate. Moreover, his comments had a grain of truth.

"States are different," Romney said. "Texas is a great state. Texas has zero income tax. Texas has a right to work state, a Republican legislature, a Republican Supreme Court. Texas has a lot of oil and gas in the ground. Those are wonderful things, but Governor Perry doesn't believe that he created those things. If he tried to say that, well, it would be like Al Gore saying he invented the Internet."

What got my attention is how natural, trustworthy and earnest Romney looked as he delivered those lines. In contrast, Perry looked overly aggressive and wooden as he released the line that "Michael Dukakis created jobs three times faster than you did, Mitt."


Romney took the punch and then shot back: "Well, as a matter of fact, George Bush and his predecessor created jobs at a faster rate than you did, Governor."


"That's not correct," said Perry.


"Yes, that is correct," said Romney.


In all this rapid fire exchange, the inexperienced John F. Harris of Politico looked overwhelmed. Meanwhile, the experienced MSNBC moderator Brian Williams, drew on his vast television comfort level to quip: "Nice to see everybody came prepared for tonight's conversation."

As far as I could tell, the above exchange highlighted the considerable value of previous experience with presidential primary level debating. It is not a natural talent. It is an acquired skill that gets better with practice. Accordingly, my prediction is that Perry stumbled a little tonight, because of his inexperience in debates, and that Romney probably made himself some new friends and supporters. Perry is a steep challenge to Romney and Romney rose to the challege. In reaction to this debate, I'm expecting Perry to stall a little and to Romney to flip up quite a bit.

All in all, however, I'm still supporting Gov. Perry. Nevertheless, I think Romney had a good answer for how his investment career created net jobs for Americans. I know this was an issue with Carly Fiorina in the last CA Senate campaign whose business expertise came off as almost hostile to the needs of workers. I'm also sensitive to the fact that polls show Romney clearly beating Obama. I like that Perry is okay suggesting Obama is a "liar." He is. I also appreciated Romney's new strength and decisiveness. Since I last paid attention to Romney, it appears he is getting a better message that makes sense by suggesting Obama is a nice guy, "who doesn't have a clue" about how to turn around the economy. I think Romney's comments about Obama being a pay phone guy in a smart phone world are quite compelling and remind us that Obama is not that smart and hasn't produced results the American people expect. If anything, Obama is the rigid unchanging ideologue who doesn't seem normal, while Romney looks like the sort of flexible guy who can learn from mistakes and produce positive results.

As a political scientist, I'm reminded of how much appearances matter in presidential debates. In the future, Gov. Perry should work harder at the debates. He needs to be more rested and relaxed ahead of time - no matter what is happening with his workload as an active TX governor. I'm also reminded at the extent to which success in debates is simply a matter of practice, rehearsal, and experience.

Finally, as someone who knew the young Marxist Obama, I was gratified to see Speaker Newt Gingrich come straightout and criticize bureaucratic socialism. I'm going a rally for Gov. Perry in Newport Beach tomorrow a.m. If I get a chance to say hello to Gov. Perry face-to-face, I'll share the same news I shared with Speaker Gingrich: the Obama I knew was a radical revolutionary looking to overthrow the U.S. capitalist system. In this context, however, I was proud to see Gingrich lash out at the mainstream media for seeking to divide Republicans and distract attention from Obama's dangerous weaknesses and failed economic policies. The mainstream media ignored my warnings about Obama's commitment and ties to Marxist socialist thought in 2008. They do not deserve any protection from the Republican candidates given the misery they inflicted on the U.S. by not fully vetting Obama in early 2008 or fully researching him in the summer of 2008. I expect that anti-Obama activists will also benefit - as has Gov. Romney - from increased experience at the national level.

John C. Drew, Ph.D. is an award-winning political scientist.

My Parents

Guest post written by Rolf Tate

Mom and dad are getting older but they’re still as spry as ever but I do feel much better when I’m able to go out to their house at least once a week to check on them. They’ve got tons of animals so I know they’re active but I guess I’m mostly worried about one of them falling or something happening with a fire or something. They keep telling me not to worry but I bought both of them cell phones just in case and went to http://get.wildblue.COM/ to get them internet for the house so they could also email. They seem really happy having both but I have to admit they’re now more technologically advanced than I am! I love my parents and I’m happy to see them so happy in their retirement but I sure wish I could harness some of their energy for myself. I’m raising three kids and sometimes I feel like my parents could do a better job of chasing them around day after day after day than me!

Dr. Drew Inquires: Who Down Graded the USA's Credit Rating at S&P

The primary credit analyst who authored the downgrade report was Nikola G Swann, CFA, FRM, Toronto according to the cover page of the S&P report.  See, http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/en/us  Nevertheless, Swann is simply an observer carefully watching our U.S. train wreck under the Obama administration.  Swann is simply recording the disaster of the Obama administration much the same way that someone would track the Titanic heading toward an obvious, well-known iceberg.



The decision to downgrade the U.S. for the first time in U.S. history was based on the failure of the U.S. to make reasonable progress in terms of the transparent and objective criteria originally outlined by S&P on June 30, 2011.  See, http://www.cotizalia.com/archivos/cz/201107059430062011.pdf  In their sovereign credit analysis, S&P indicates that they look at the following variables:

• Institutional effectiveness and political risks, reflected in the political score.
• Economic structure and growth prospects, reflected in the economic score.
• External liquidity and international investment position, reflected in the external score.
• Fiscal performance and flexibility, as well as debt burden, reflected in the fiscal score.
• Monetary flexibility, reflected in the monetary score.

By all accounts, the key factor that changed dramatically over the last year was the political score which included an assessment of

• The effectiveness, stability, and predictability of the sovereign's policymaking and political institutions (primary factor).
• The transparency and accountability of institutions, data, and processes, as well as the coverage and reliability of statistical information (secondary factor).
• The government's payment culture (potential adjustment factor).
• The potential effect of external organizations on policy setting (potential adjustment factor).

These factors were chosen, in part, because the political score captures the factors listed above, in a manner which is uncorrelated with any particular political system.

Quite simply, the inability of the Obama administration to pull together a deal until the very last moment provided S&P with the evidence it needed to determine that we were relatively less likely - compared to our peer countries including Canada, France, Germany and the U.K. - to resolve this crisis in the face of mounting pressures. 

As S&P states: "A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011)." (Research Update: United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative, pp. 3-4.)

John C. Drew, Ph.D. is an award-winning political scientist.

Dr. Drew Marvels at the Wonder of A Cheap Seat

I could not function as a author, speaker and consultant without investing in travel and business entertainment. In my case, I have discovered that no one wants to pay to hear from me here in Laguna Niguel, CA.  Get me out-of-state, however, and I'm a star.  I'm the grant writing expert from Laguna Niguel.  As you can see, Tricia and I recently combined business with pleasure by visiting the Grand Ole Opry during a trip to Nashville, TN.

Accordingly, I'm a big fan of the website http://www.acheapseat.com/. They have access to an amazing range of venues and they offer tickets at attractive prices. Tricia and I are big fans of Jerry Seinfeld and my nephew absolutely adores Jeff Dunham.  Tickets to both acts are available through http://www.acheapseat.com/.

For example, there are great deals out there now on tickets at your favorite venues to see your favorite artists including Wachovia Arena Tickets, Chicago Theatre Tickets, Los Angeles Lakers Tickets, Jeff Dunham Tickets, and Jerry Seinfeld Tickets. 
When Tricia and I need to entertain clients (or ourselves) we turn to http://www.acheapseat.com/  After all, we have always enjoyed meeting new people and seeing all the entertainment the world has to offer us.

John C. Drew, Ph.D. is an award-winning political scientist.